Saturday, September 17, 2011

First Edition Winter 2011-12 Forecast:

(first edition)
For the winter of 2011-12, there will be many extremes, for example, in some areas, they will be seeing more snow and cold than other areas, and others may be stuck in a warm and dry pattern.  
Even though I do not like to use these, but this is a seasonal forecast, so I am using them anyway.
For this winter I am using:
1917-18, 1950-51, 1955-56, 1975-76, 2000-01, and 2010-11
Even though the CFS models are forecasting a strong La Nina, I think that is way overdone, I think that it will be a weak to a possible moderate La Nina, (and that would be a very isolated chance, I give it a 25% chance of happening). I also believe that there will be a east based La Nina.

Yet again, we could be dealing with a negative NAO/AO for the majority of the winter, and that will yet again give the northern part of the United States, but a negative NAO/AO is not the only thing that will give the northern part of the nation some cold and snow, but we also need a positive PNA, that helps to deliver big storms to the northeast in particular.  To have a positive PNA, we need the EPO to become positive, and this year, I think there will be a back and fourth between a positive and a negative PNA, and for the northeast to get the big snows we need there to be a positive PNA and a negative NAO/AO, that is what we need. The other two things that we need to keep an eye on is the MJO, and the QBO.  First I will address the MJO, when it gets to either a 6, 7, or 8, it is a good sign for snow on the east coast, and that is because it helps to establish a positive PNA, this is not very easy to predict, so I cannot issue a long range forecast for this.  Now I get to the QBO, this is also very significant for heavy snowfall on the east coast and in the northern part of the United States, and when it is in the negative phase it is good for heavy snow, and currently it is expected to remain in the negative phase for the majority of the winter.  
Monthly Forecasts:
For the month of December, I believe that it will be below, (temperature wise), normal, to much below normal for areas north of I-40, and for the vast majority of the Rocky and Application Mountains, that also applies to the Northeast.  There will also be above normal temps for the Southeast, and for the Southwest.  The areas where precip. will be above normal will be for the Northeast, the upper Midwest, the Rocky Mts. and the Northwest. The areas where it will be below to much below average will be in the Southeast, and in the Southwest.  There is a possibility that a “Pineapple Express” could develop in the southern California region, this would be due to the fact that the Southern Jet Stream will be more active, (than it was last year), this year, and that could add a lot of snow and rain the the southwest region and that could lead to a bust, (precip. wise) for the region.  I do not believe that the SE ridge will be a factor for this month.  
For the month of January, I believe that it will be colder than normal for the same areas that I had highlighted back in the December forecast, but it might be wetter than normal in the upper midwest and in the northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic, and in turn this will lead to above average snowfall in those regions, I will get into better detail when i release my final forecast.  The SE ridge may start to have an impact during this month, but it will not be an extreme effect.
For those areas that I had forecasted there to be below average temperatures, there will be average to slightly below average temperatures, and this will be due to the fact that the SE ridge will have more and more of an impact as the month of February goes on, and this will also lead to a more inland track of the storms (Apps runners and GLC’s)  The SE ridge will also lead to drier weather in the eastern part of the nation.

Link to map:
Weather in this zone will be the worst, expect there to be severe blizzards, heavy snowstorms, Arctic outbreaks, and many areas in this zone will see more snow that they had seen during last winter, and there could be some records broken for both snowfall amounts and for cold temperatures, the reason why I think that the costal areas will do better will be because the ocean has above average temps, and I think that will give many of the storms that do form, plenty of fuel to become very powerful. The SE ridge should not have much of an affect until mid February for this area.
Weather in this zone will experience conditions such as heavy snowstorms, and a few cold outbreaks, there could also be some storms that will have mixed precipitation during the latter part of January and the early part of February, I think that the SE ridge will have a larger affect than it will have in zone 1, and those affects will not be felt until early February.  But overall this region should have very similar conditions that were experienced during last winter, but there could be less snow and cold.
This area will have an average winter both temperature wise and precipitation wise, there will still be some heavy snowfall in this region, just not as much as the places that re north of you will be going through.  The SE ridge will also have an affect here that will be felt in  either late January or early February.
The weather in this area will go through below average snowfall, and there will be more mixed precip storms, but there will still be some light to moderate snow for this area, but there is also the chance for there to be some moderate ice storms in this area.  The SE ridge will be much more pronounced in this zone and it will likely be felt from  middle to late January.
Weather in this area will be going through a very sloppy winter, for example, there will be below average snowfall, and there will be slightly above average temps.  There will be some very significant ice storms in this area, and there could be some widespread damage in the area due to numerous ice storms, (mainly from late December through mid January), the SE ridge will have a very big affect on this area, and it will be felt from early January for most likely the rest of winter. 
These are the “wild card’s” that will have an affect on the United States during this winter, and there are three of them:
1.The NAO/AO/PNA, what will happen?
2.The SE ridge, when will it set up, and how strong will it be?
3. The La Nina, could it get stronger than a moderate La Nina?

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