First Edition Winter 2011-12 Forecast:

WINTER 2011-12 FORECAST

(first edition)

For the winter of 2011-12, there will be many extremes, for example, in some areas, they will be seeing more snow and cold than other areas, and others may be stuck in a warm and dry pattern.  

Analogs:

Even though I do not like to use these, but this is a seasonal forecast, so I am using them anyway.

For this winter I am using:

1917-18, 1950-51, 1955-56, 1975-76, 2000-01, and 2010-11

EL NINO/ LA NINA:

Even though the CFS models are forecasting a strong La Nina, I think that is way overdone, I think that it will be a weak to a possible moderate La Nina, (and that would be a very isolated chance, I give it a 25% chance of happening). I also believe that there will be a east based La Nina.

Teleconnections:

Yet again, we could be dealing with a negative NAO/AO for the majority of the winter, and that will yet again give the northern part of the United States, but a negative NAO/AO is not the only thing that will give the northern part of the nation some cold and snow, but we also need a positive PNA, that helps to deliver big storms to the northeast in particular.  To have a positive PNA, we need the EPO to become positive, and this year, I think there will be a back and fourth between a positive and a negative PNA, and for the northeast to get the big snows we need there to be a positive PNA and a negative NAO/AO, that is what we need. The other two things that we need to keep an eye on is the MJO, and the QBO.  First I will address the MJO, when it gets to either a 6, 7, or 8, it is a good sign for snow on the east coast, and that is because it helps to establish a positive PNA, this is not very easy to predict, so I cannot issue a long range forecast for this.  Now I get to the QBO, this is also very significant for heavy snowfall on the east coast and in the northern part of the United States, and when it is in the negative phase it is good for heavy snow, and currently it is expected to remain in the negative phase for the majority of the winter.  

Monthly Forecasts:

DECEMBER:

For the month of December, I believe that it will be below, (temperature wise), normal, to much below normal for areas north of I-40, and for the vast majority of the Rocky and Application Mountains, that also applies to the Northeast.  There will also be above normal temps for the Southeast, and for the Southwest.  The areas where precip. will be above normal will be for the Northeast, the upper Midwest, the Rocky Mts. and the Northwest. The areas where it will be below to much below average will be in the Southeast, and in the Southwest.  There is a possibility that a “Pineapple Express” could develop in the southern California region, this would be due to the fact that the Southern Jet Stream will be more active, (than it was last year), this year, and that could add a lot of snow and rain the the southwest region and that could lead to a bust, (precip. wise) for the region.  I do not believe that the SE ridge will be a factor for this month.  

January:

For the month of January, I believe that it will be colder than normal for the same areas that I had highlighted back in the December forecast, but it might be wetter than normal in the upper midwest and in the northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic, and in turn this will lead to above average snowfall in those regions, I will get into better detail when i release my final forecast.  The SE ridge may start to have an impact during this month, but it will not be an extreme effect.

February:

For those areas that I had forecasted there to be below average temperatures, there will be average to slightly below average temperatures, and this will be due to the fact that the SE ridge will have more and more of an impact as the month of February goes on, and this will also lead to a more inland track of the storms (Apps runners and GLC’s)  The SE ridge will also lead to drier weather in the eastern part of the nation.

WINTER WEATHER MAP:


Link to map: http://www.facebook.com/pages/East-Coast-US-Weather-Center/221752147844024

ZONE 1:

Weather in this zone will be the worst, expect there to be severe blizzards, heavy snowstorms, Arctic outbreaks, and many areas in this zone will see more snow that they had seen during last winter, and there could be some records broken for both snowfall amounts and for cold temperatures, the reason why I think that the costal areas will do better will be because the ocean has above average temps, and I think that will give many of the storms that do form, plenty of fuel to become very powerful. The SE ridge should not have much of an affect until mid February for this area.

ZONE 2:

Weather in this zone will experience conditions such as heavy snowstorms, and a few cold outbreaks, there could also be some storms that will have mixed precipitation during the latter part of January and the early part of February, I think that the SE ridge will have a larger affect than it will have in zone 1, and those affects will not be felt until early February.  But overall this region should have very similar conditions that were experienced during last winter, but there could be less snow and cold.

ZONE 3:

This area will have an average winter both temperature wise and precipitation wise, there will still be some heavy snowfall in this region, just not as much as the places that re north of you will be going through.  The SE ridge will also have an affect here that will be felt in  either late January or early February.

ZONE 4:

The weather in this area will go through below average snowfall, and there will be more mixed precip storms, but there will still be some light to moderate snow for this area, but there is also the chance for there to be some moderate ice storms in this area.  The SE ridge will be much more pronounced in this zone and it will likely be felt from  middle to late January.

ZONE 5:

Weather in this area will be going through a very sloppy winter, for example, there will be below average snowfall, and there will be slightly above average temps.  There will be some very significant ice storms in this area, and there could be some widespread damage in the area due to numerous ice storms, (mainly from late December through mid January), the SE ridge will have a very big affect on this area, and it will be felt from early January for most likely the rest of winter. 

WINTER WILD CARDS:

These are the “wild card’s” that will have an affect on the United States during this winter, and there are three of them:

1.The NAO/AO/PNA, what will happen?

2.The SE ridge, when will it set up, and how strong will it be?

3. The La Nina, could it get stronger than a moderate La Nina?

MY FINAL WINTER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOVEMBER 11, 2011!!!

Preliminary Winter Forecast:

This is my preliminary idea for the winter for the northeastern states:

I think that the northeast will not receive the high amounts of snow that it had received last winter, instead, I believe that the northeast will receive more small to medium sized snowfalls, ( such as 2-4, and 3-6 inch events, and not the 12-16 inch events that we had seen during last winter), but I do think that most areas will receive above average amounts of snow for the entire winter. 

I also think that the northeast will be below normal temperature wise for the majority of the winter, this will be because the AO could be negative for the majority of the winter, and that will help to cause below normal temperatures for the northeastern states, and the northern part of the United States on a whole.

I will be making changes to this forecast as time goes on, my final winter 2011-2012 forecast will be released on October 22, 2011.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!!!!

As of now, there are multiple SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS, and SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS  in effect in the southern states, the main threat is that there will be large hail and high winds, there is a very low risk of tornados for this area.

Tropical Depression Six

A new tropical weather system has formed in the north Atlantic, it is not expected to affect land in any kind of way, it will most likely remain at sea.

Rain on the way

On Sunday and Monday, there will be region of rain that will be heading into the eastern United States, the heaviest rain will be concentrated in the northeastern states, there is a potential that there will be up to 3.5 inches in central New York State, but for most areas, expect 1-2 inches if rain, some of the rain could be heavy at times.  There may also be a chance for some severe weather included in the rainfall, (northeastern states only).


In the states of  GA, SC, NC VA, DE, and MD, there is a slight risk chance of severe weather, the main risk will be for a risk of high winds.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily

Over the course of the day she has been weakening, her maximum sustained wind speeds are now down to 40 MPH, and I think that once she gets past the Island of Hispaniola, she should be reduced down to a Tropical Depression, but once Emily is out and over the Bahaman Islands, she could possibly rapidly re-intensify, and she might be able to reach hurricane strength by Sunday night.

If you live on the east coast of Florida and south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, you should keep an eye on Emily, because she may make a landfall in one of these states, so you should keep an eye on her, just for your safety.

Cooling Ahead (for some)

Those who live in the northern Mid-Atlantic, and in the New England regions will have a few weeks of not dealing with the high temperatures, and the high humidity, but this will not apply to anywhere south of the Southern Mid-Atlantic, for those people, you will still have to deal with the dreaded 3 H's "Hazy, Hot, and Humid" for just a little while longer, but it is still summer and that means that it gets hot, and that also means that it cam also get very hot, and humid.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY

This is the NHC's current forecast for Emily:

TROPICAL STORM EMILY

Sustained Wind Speeds: 50MPH

Maximum Wind Gusts: 65MPH

Pressure(mb's): 1006mb

Movement: WEST at 14MPH

I'm Back!!!

I will be looking forward to be posting on this page again, for the last month or so, I could not post here because I had forgot my google password.

I will try to have a forecast out by tonight.

Stats

So far this year I have had three hail storms, the biggest one was on June 9th, I had quater-plus size hail, that cracked a few car windshields(mostly pre 1998 models), and it had accumulated to 6+ inches, and it had killed many plants in the area. Yesterday I had nickel size hail that had accumulated to 3 inches, that had killed even more plants in the area.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!!!!

THERE IS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 700!!!!

Forecast for: Thursday June 16, 2011

Northern New England:


High temps will be in the upper 70's to the lower 80's.  The morning should be partly sunny, by afternoon, some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Southern New England:


High temps will be in the lower to the middle 80's in most areas, some of the costal areas might get stuck in the upper 70's.  The morning should be mostly sunny, by the afternoon hours, some isolated showers and thunderstorms might develop over the far northern regions, but these should be very few in number, and they will not become numerous until the overnight hours, where they will become much more widespread.

Upper Mid Atlantic:


High temps will be in the lower to the middle 80's in most areas, but some of the costal regions may get stuck in the upper 70's.  The morning and early afternoon should be mostly sunny, but by the late afternoon hours, some isolated showers and thunderstorms might develop, but they will be mostly concentrated over the western areas, such as New Jersey, western upstate New York, and over western Pennsylvania, and they will not spread into the eastern regions until after 7:00, and even at that point, they will still remain isolated, none of these will become severe.

Lower Mid Atlantic:


High temps will be in the middle to the upper 70's in most areas, some of the northern areas might get into the lower 80's.  It will be mostly cloudy in most areas, but some of the northern areas might become partly cloudy in the early morning hours. There will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours, but by the afternoon hours, they will become more widespread, none of these will become severe.

Upper Southeast:


High temps will be in the upper 80's to the lower 90's, some areas on southern South Carolina might get into the middle to upper 90's if they do not stay cloudy for most of the day.  There will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms during, both the morning hours and in the afternoon hours. SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE!!!!


Lower Southeast:


High temps will be in the middle to upper 90's, there may be some 100's in southern Georgia, and in northern Florida.  There will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours, then they will start to become more numerous during the afternoon hours.  SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE!!!!

Todays Stats: Wednesday June 15, 2011

Today my high temperature was at 74 degrees
Today my low temperature was at 58 degrees
I had 0.00 inches of rainfall
It was mostly sunny for the entire day.

Tonights Forecast, Wednesday June 15, 2011

Northern New England:


Lows will be in the middle 40's to the lower 50's, there may be some upper 30's in the mountain areas on New Hampshire and Vermont.  It will be mostly clear, and there will be some fog in central Maine, and in the valley floors in some of the mountain regions.

Southern New England:


Lows will be in the middle to the upper 50's, there may be some upper 40's in the mountain regions.  There may be some showers in Southern and eastern CT, and RI, there may be some valley fog in the mountain regions.

Upper Mid Atlantic:


Lows will be in the upper 50's to the lower 60's. It will be partly cloudy to start, then it will be mostly clear after midnight.

Lower Mid Atlantic:


Lows will be in the lower to the middle 60's, there may be some showers and thunderstorms to start, but then ti will clear up after midnight.

Upper Southeast:


Lows will be in the upper 60's to the lower 70's.  There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms that will persist throughout the entire night, SOME MAY BE SEVERE!!!! There may be some valley fog in the mountain regions if the thunderstorms end early.

Lower Southeast:


Lows will be in the lower to the middle 70's.  There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms that will persist throughout the entire  night, SOME MAY BE SEVERE!!!!!!!! 

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!!!!

There are currently MULTIPLE severe thunderstorm watches and WARNINGS up for the following regions:

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (watch #478) IS IN EFFECT FOR:

1. Northern Alabama 
2. Northern Georgia 
3. Northeast Mississippi
4. Extreme Western North Carolina 
5. The Majority of Tennessee 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (watch #479) IS IN EFFECT FOR:

1. Central Florida   
2. Southern Florida
3. The Florida Keys

                                                                                                                                           

Update

TODAY's Conditions, Tuesday June 14, 2011

The High temperature for my area was at 64
The Low temperature for my area was at 57
Today's precip. was 1.08"
It was mostly cloudy throughout most of the day, around 1:00 the sun had come out for a very brief period of time, then it was overcast for the rest of the day.  At around 7:30, it had started to rain heavily, and I had received 1.08 inches of rain in a very short period of time, and that in turn had caused some minor street flooding.

NEW PAGES!!!!

As you can see, I have made a few changes to this page since I have created it last night, please check them out, I have not yet updated, or even posted on some of them yet, but I will be using them in the upcoming days, so stay posted.

Other than that, I will not be able to release the forecast for tomorrow tonight, which was the original target time, so I will instead be releasing them sometime tomorrow morning, most likely between the hours of 8 and 10, so keep watching!!!

UPDATE!!!!!!

Remember: I will be releasing, BOTH, my SUMMER 2011 forecast, and my TROPICAL SEASON OUTLOOK FOR 2011 tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Northern New England: (ME, VT, NH, also includes the Adirondack Mts of NYS)

There are currently some rain showers on eastern Maine, and some of those showers may have some moderate to heavy rain with them.  Current temperatures are in the low to mid 50's, with a few isolated low to mid 40's in the mountain regions.

Southern New England: (MA, CT, RI)

It is currently mostly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 50's in most areas.  It will remain this way until tonight.

Upper Mid Atlantic: (Southern NY(south of Albany), east of State college PA, and NJ)

There are currently some showers with a few embedded thunderstorms that are currently located in northern NJ, they will be heading towards NYC and Long Island in the next few hours.  Temps are in the low to mid 60's in most areas.

Lower Mid Atlantic: (DE, MD, DC, VA and Eastern WV)

NO UPDATE, SAME FORECAST
Upper Southeast: (NC, SC, includes eastern TN, and eastern KY)

NO UPDATE, SAME FORECAST
Lower Southeast: (GA, FL, also eastern AL)


NO UPDATE, SAME FORECAST

Marine Forecast for: Tuesday June 14, 2011

Costal Maine: (from Eastport, ME, down to Portsmouth, NH)

Seas 4-5 feet in the daytime hours, then expect seas of 3-4 feet after dark.
Expect temps in ranging from 50 to 55 in most areas.
There may be some isolated showers in the morning and in the afternoon, they will taper off by late evening.  Water temps will be around 55-60.
Advisories: A SMALL CRAFT ADVIS. IS IN AFFECT UNTILL LATER ON THIS EVENING, IT IS IN EFFECT FROM BANGOR, ME TO PORTSMOUTH, NH.

Costal Southern New England: (from Portsmouth, NH, down to Nantucket, Mass)


Seas 5-6 feet throughout the day and night.  Expect temps ranging from 55-60 in most areas. There is a chance for showers in the morning and afternoon, they will taper off by nightfall. Water temps around 60-65 in most areas.
Advisories: A SMALL CRAFT ADVIS. IS IN AFFECT UNTILL LATER ON THIS EVENING, IT IS IN EFFECT FROM PORTSMOUTH, NH TO MARTHAS VINEYARD, MASS.


Costal Long Island and CT: (also includes NJ, down to Cape May)


Seas 1-2 feet in the LI sound, seas of 5-6 feet from Montauk Point, NY down to Cape May, NJ. There is a chance for showers in the morning and in the afternoon, they will taper off by nightfall.  Water temps around 60-65 in most areas.

Forecast for: Tuesday June 14, 2011

Northern New England: (ME, VT, NH, also includes the Adirondack Mts of NYS)

It will be very chilly and damp (breezy on the coast), high temps in the mid to upper 50's, mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers in the late morning to late afternoon, the showers will taper off by the evening, with lows, very chilly again in the mid to upper 40's with some isolated upper 30's in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont, at night it will be partly cloudy with some valley fog in the mountain regions.

Southern New England: (MA, CT, RI)


It will be seasonable chilly and damp (breezy on the coast), high temps in the upper 50's to the lover 60's, mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers in the late morning to late afternoon, the showers will taper off by the evening, with lows, chilly, with lows in the upper 40's to the lower 50's, with some isolated lower 40's in the mountains of Mass, and CT, at night it will be partly cloudy with some valley fog in the mountain regions.

Upper Mid Atlantic: (Southern NY(south of Albany), east of State college PA, and NJ)


It will be chilly and damp (breezy on the coast), high temps in the lower to the middle 60's, mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers in the morning and afternoon, the showers will taper off by the evening, with lows in the middle to upper 50's, with a few isolated middle 40's in the Catskills, and the Poconos, at night it will be partly cloudy with some valley fog in the mountain regions.

Lower Mid Atlantic: (DE, MD, DC, VA and Eastern WV)


It will be seasonable, high temps in the upper 60's to the middle 70's, mostly sunny throughout the day, lows will be the low to mid 60's with a few isolated lower 50's in the mountains of West Virginia, and Virginia, at night it will be clear.


Upper Southeast: (NC, SC, incudes eastern TN, and eastern KY)


It will be somewhat warm, high temps in the middle to upper 80's, with a few isolated lower 90's in southern South Carolina, mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy by afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the low country of SC, and in eastern TN and eastern KY, lows will be in the middle to upper 60's, with a few upper 50's in the mountain regions, at night it will be partly cloudy with a few isolates showers and thunderstorms in Eastern TN, western NC and Eastern KY.


Lower Southeast: (GA, FL, also eastern AL)


It will be very hot, with high temps in the middle to upper 90's, with a few isolated 100's in southern GA, northern FL, and in central AL, Mostly sunny all day, with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in central FL and in central AL, some may be severe, at night lows will be in the middle to upper 70's with a few isolated lower 80's in southern GA, southern AL, and northern FL, mostly clear with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in FL.

Today's Conditions, Monday June 13, 2011

The High temperature for today was at 70
The Low temperature for today was at 57
It was mostly cloudy
There was 0.02" of rain today

Seasonal Forecast Release Dates

These will be the dates for when I will be releasing my seasonal forecasts:

SUMMER:
 June 14, 2011

TROPICAL:
 June 20, 2011

FALL:
September 2, 2011

WINTER: 

1. June 17, 2011 (1st edition)
2. July 20, 2011 (2nd edition)
3. August 21, 2011 (3rd edition)
4. October 3, 2011 (FINAL EDITION)

All of these release dates are subject to change, but most likely they will be released on or very close to their scheduled release date.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to let me know.

EDIT: my tropical forecast will be released on WEDNESDAY JUNE 15, 2011

Welcome!!!

Welcome to my blog!!!

I have always been an avid follower of the weather and now i have decided to create my own personal weather blog.  In this blog I will be posting updates and discussions on:

1. Current Conditions
2. Forecasts, short term and extended
3. Severe weather Outlooks
4. Seasonal forecasts, such as Winter, Spring, Summer, Tropical, and Fall
5. Tropical outlooks and discussions 

I will be looking forward to posting on this page!!