Preliminary Winter Forecast:

This is my preliminary idea for the winter for the northeastern states:

I think that the northeast will not receive the high amounts of snow that it had received last winter, instead, I believe that the northeast will receive more small to medium sized snowfalls, ( such as 2-4, and 3-6 inch events, and not the 12-16 inch events that we had seen during last winter), but I do think that most areas will receive above average amounts of snow for the entire winter. 

I also think that the northeast will be below normal temperature wise for the majority of the winter, this will be because the AO could be negative for the majority of the winter, and that will help to cause below normal temperatures for the northeastern states, and the northern part of the United States on a whole.

I will be making changes to this forecast as time goes on, my final winter 2011-2012 forecast will be released on October 22, 2011.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!!!!

As of now, there are multiple SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS, and SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS  in effect in the southern states, the main threat is that there will be large hail and high winds, there is a very low risk of tornados for this area.

Tropical Depression Six

A new tropical weather system has formed in the north Atlantic, it is not expected to affect land in any kind of way, it will most likely remain at sea.

Rain on the way

On Sunday and Monday, there will be region of rain that will be heading into the eastern United States, the heaviest rain will be concentrated in the northeastern states, there is a potential that there will be up to 3.5 inches in central New York State, but for most areas, expect 1-2 inches if rain, some of the rain could be heavy at times.  There may also be a chance for some severe weather included in the rainfall, (northeastern states only).


In the states of  GA, SC, NC VA, DE, and MD, there is a slight risk chance of severe weather, the main risk will be for a risk of high winds.

Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Emily

Over the course of the day she has been weakening, her maximum sustained wind speeds are now down to 40 MPH, and I think that once she gets past the Island of Hispaniola, she should be reduced down to a Tropical Depression, but once Emily is out and over the Bahaman Islands, she could possibly rapidly re-intensify, and she might be able to reach hurricane strength by Sunday night.

If you live on the east coast of Florida and south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, you should keep an eye on Emily, because she may make a landfall in one of these states, so you should keep an eye on her, just for your safety.

Cooling Ahead (for some)

Those who live in the northern Mid-Atlantic, and in the New England regions will have a few weeks of not dealing with the high temperatures, and the high humidity, but this will not apply to anywhere south of the Southern Mid-Atlantic, for those people, you will still have to deal with the dreaded 3 H's "Hazy, Hot, and Humid" for just a little while longer, but it is still summer and that means that it gets hot, and that also means that it cam also get very hot, and humid.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY

This is the NHC's current forecast for Emily:

TROPICAL STORM EMILY

Sustained Wind Speeds: 50MPH

Maximum Wind Gusts: 65MPH

Pressure(mb's): 1006mb

Movement: WEST at 14MPH

I'm Back!!!

I will be looking forward to be posting on this page again, for the last month or so, I could not post here because I had forgot my google password.

I will try to have a forecast out by tonight.